Even though the Baltic countries are arming themselves massively, everyone is talking about a possible invasion by Moscow. There is even a new evacuation plan for Vilnius.
Sunshine and a temperature of nearly 20 degrees promise a wonderful spring day in Vilnius. The River Neris meanders through the Lithuanian capital and people stroll along its banks in sunglasses and high spirits.
It is a similar scene in the magnificent old town, which was made a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1994. Locals and tourists alike stroll through the charming little alleyways, some of them traffic-calmed. They sip their coffee or perhaps a Lithuanian Humulupu IPA in the pub gardens while enjoying the picturesque surroundings with their baroque buildings.
At first glance, it is hard to tell that Vilnius, the whole of Lithuania and actually the entire Baltic region have been more or less on alert for over three years now.
Ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, many countries in northern and eastern Europe have been asking themselves who could be next – who could become the next target of Vladimir Putin’s imperialism?
Moldova is often mentioned, as is Georgia. Finland and Sweden have joined Nato because of the threat from the east. The three Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have long been members of both Nato and the EU. Nevertheless, people in Vilnius do not really feel safe.
“We must be blind if we can’t see what is coming our way,” says Lithuanian deputy defence minister Karolis Aleksa
This is partly because no one knows whether, in the event of a Russian attack, US president Donald Trump would abide by Article 5 of the Nato treaty, which requires all Nato members to come to the aid of any member country under attack.
A possible Russian invasion is being talked about everywhere in Vilnius, “in lunch breaks, at parties, in small talk”, 32-year-old Gabija Stasiukyne told the Ukrainian online newspaper, The Kyiv Independent: “The conversation inevitably comes round to the question of what people would do if that happened.”
Lithuania’s massive rearmament efforts have not changed this, and nor have the government’s constant appeals to the international community to take seriously the threat posed by Russia to countries other than Ukraine.
“We must be blind if we can’t see what is coming our way,” says Lithuanian deputy defence minister Karolis Aleksa, speaking in Vilnius to journalists from the Pulse project, of which Der Standard and EUobserver are members. “Russia is making preparations and expanding its military capabilities.”
He argues that the Western world must finally wake up to what Putin wants to achieve: a Greater Russia. “I lived in Brussels for three years until my return last year. I saw for myself that societies there believe that a peaceful solution can be reached with Moscow.”
Lithuania recently joined Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Finland in withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty prohibiting anti-personnel mines
Aleksa is convinced that this is not the case, and that Russia will never give up until it has achieved its goal. “It is our responsibility to prevent a major conflict,” he says, adding that there will be further escalation “if we don’t show that we can defend ourselves”.
The Baltic countries have been rearming for some time now.
In January, Lithuania’s Defence Council, consisting of representatives from the country’s political and military leadership, decided to increase the defence budget from about 3.0 to 5.5 percent of GDP each year from 2026 to 2030 — an additional €10bn to €14bn, according to analysts.
Lithuania recently joined Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Finland in withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty prohibiting anti-personnel mines.
They all justified their move on the basis of the military threat posed by neighbouring Russia, pointing out that Moscow has never signed the Ottawa Treaty and has used anti-personnel mines in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda spoke of a “logical and consistent step” that had been explained to the country’s allies.
The reason is that mines will form part of the “Baltic Line of Defence” agreed between Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in January 2024. This will see both mines and explosives deployed swiftly at the border in an emergency, as well as the construction of concrete barriers, fences, supply lines and around 600 bunkers.
Despite all this, a major vulnerability remains — something that has even been dubbed 'Nato’s Achilles’ heel.'
This is the Suwałki Gap, once described by Politico as the “most dangerous place in the world”. This narrow strip of land, just 65km long, connects the Baltic states with Poland and thus also with the other Nato countries. To the west of it lies the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, to the east, Moscow-loyal Belarus. If Putin were to strike here, it would be relatively easy for him to cut the Baltic states off from their allies.
In the autumn of 2022, the German broadcaster MDR interviewed people living near the Suwałki Gap. One respondent, a librarian, said, “I don’t think the Russians could attack us at the moment anyway because all their key troops are in Ukraine. The war there is enough for them for now.”
Many experts share this view.
But what about when the war in Ukraine ends, whatever form that might take? In that scenario, it would not be all that long before Putin had enough armed forces at his disposal for a new attack.
In early May, the US think-tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned that Moscow was gradually preparing the rhetorical case for an attack on the Baltic states.
It cited a 2 May report by the independent Russian media Meduza and Agentstvo stating that foreign minister Sergei Lavrov had written a foreword for a book about the history of Lithuania in which he claimed that the Baltic states were using “falsified” historical narratives to stir up Russophobic and anti-Russian feeling among the local population.
The ISW quoted Lithuania’s foreign minister Kęstutis Budry as saying that the book in question was a Russian propaganda tool designed to provide the Kremlin with scholarly literature to support its denial of the separate statehood and histories of Russia’s neighbours. This narrative would allow Russia to claim a right to all the countries that were once part of the Soviet Union — Lithuania included.
Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that Lithuanian schools are already teaching survival skills, including how to administer first aid and use a weapon.
Or that April saw the publication of an evacuation plan for Vilnius that would move the capital’s 500,000-plus residents to safety via 150 different routes if the worst came to the worst. The city is about 30km from the Belarusian border.
However idyllic Vilnius may seem, preparations for the worst-case scenario are busily being made in the background. And deputy defence minister Aleksa stresses once again: “The threat is real. We know that from our history.”
Translated by Paula Kirby (Voxeurop)
This article is part of the PULSE collaborative project. The original article was published by the Austrian outlet Der Standard.
Kim Son Hoang is a foreign editor at the Austrian media outlet Der Standard
Kim Son Hoang is a foreign editor at the Austrian media outlet Der Standard